{
  "pillarKey": "tariffShock",
  "title": "Tariffs & LDC Graduation",
  "version": "6be17a457179",
  "contentHash": "6be17a457179bcdc8eae46fb49b2abb1c5ec1a56fd69dc6f2a847a1dc62342f1",
  "snapshotDate": "2026-10-18",
  "status": "partially-verified",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-24",
  "publisher": "American Bangladesh Foundation",
  "note": "Immutable snapshot. contentHash is SHA-256 over the key-sorted JSON of `content`. Cite the original publisher for any figure you reuse.",
  "content": {
    "key": "tariffShock",
    "rows": [
      {
        "country": "Bangladesh",
        "countryDuty": 10,
        "avgMfn": 16.5,
        "effectiveTariff": 26.5
      },
      {
        "country": "Vietnam",
        "countryDuty": 12.5,
        "avgMfn": 16.5,
        "effectiveTariff": 29
      },
      {
        "country": "Cambodia",
        "countryDuty": 10,
        "avgMfn": 16.5,
        "effectiveTariff": 26.5
      },
      {
        "country": "India",
        "countryDuty": 10,
        "avgMfn": 16.5,
        "effectiveTariff": 26.5
      },
      {
        "country": "China",
        "countryDuty": 12.5,
        "avgMfn": 16.5,
        "effectiveTariff": 29
      },
      {
        "country": "Indonesia",
        "countryDuty": 10,
        "avgMfn": 16.5,
        "effectiveTariff": 26.5
      }
    ],
    "highlights": [
      {
        "label": "BD Section 301 Duty",
        "value": "10%",
        "delta": "Lower tier, since 24 Jul 2026"
      },
      {
        "label": "Effective Apparel Rate",
        "value": "26.5%",
        "delta": "10% + 16.5% MFN"
      },
      {
        "label": "Gap vs. Vietnam/China",
        "value": "−2.5pp",
        "delta": "Peers in the 12.5% tier"
      }
    ],
    "claims": [
      {
        "claim": "US Section 301/IEEPA/reciprocal tariff rate timeline on Bangladesh",
        "sourceRef": "USTR press releases · SCOTUS/CIT opinions"
      },
      {
        "claim": "LDC graduation tariff-preference scenarios (post-2026)",
        "sourceRef": "UNCTAD Vulnerability Profile · WTO · UN CDP & ECOSOC 2026"
      }
    ],
    "primarySourceUrl": "https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ustr-takes-action-forced-labor-section-301-investigations",
    "additionalSources": [
      {
        "name": "WTO Tariff Download Facility",
        "url": "https://tariffdata.wto.org"
      },
      {
        "name": "UNCTAD TRAINS",
        "url": "https://unctadstat.unctad.org"
      }
    ],
    "verification": {
      "registryStatus": "Partially Verified",
      "sourceVerified": true,
      "unverifiedFields": [],
      "knownGaps": [
        "Post-graduation LDC tariff scenarios are projections only",
        "US country duties are in active flux: the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs on 20 Feb 2026, the Court of International Trade struck down their Section 122 replacement on 7 May 2026 (on appeal), and the Section 301 forced-labor duties in force since 24 Jul 2026 were themselves challenged by 25 states on 3 Aug 2026. Rates shown are current but may not survive litigation",
        "The textile/apparel tariff-rate quota deadline (1 Sep 2026) passed without a Federal Register notice establishing the quota; the effective-rate series does not assume one is in force",
        "Export-decline and jobs-at-risk projections were modelled against the earlier 19% country rate and read as an upper bound at the current 10%"
      ]
    }
  }
}