{
  "pillarKey": "geopoliticalShock",
  "title": "Geopolitical Shock & Energy Vulnerability",
  "version": "dd350ed01934",
  "contentHash": "dd350ed019347accb8ca2019ca07730b23a84e7e3c4235ab6c77aee6be922cf9",
  "snapshotDate": "2026-10-18",
  "status": "partially-verified",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-08-16",
  "publisher": "American Bangladesh Foundation",
  "note": "Immutable snapshot. contentHash is SHA-256 over the key-sorted JSON of `content`. Cite the original publisher for any figure you reuse.",
  "content": {
    "key": "geopoliticalShock",
    "rows": [
      {
        "indicator": "RMG Export Growth",
        "baseline2025": 8.5,
        "scenarioOptimistic": 4,
        "scenarioProtracted": -2,
        "unit": "% YoY"
      },
      {
        "indicator": "Remittance Inflow",
        "baseline2025": 30.3,
        "scenarioOptimistic": 28.2,
        "scenarioProtracted": 24.9,
        "unit": "USD billion"
      },
      {
        "indicator": "Inflation (CPI)",
        "baseline2025": 9,
        "scenarioOptimistic": 9.7,
        "scenarioProtracted": 11.5,
        "unit": "%"
      },
      {
        "indicator": "Forex Reserves (gross)",
        "baseline2025": 33.2,
        "scenarioOptimistic": 29.4,
        "scenarioProtracted": 24.1,
        "unit": "USD billion"
      },
      {
        "indicator": "Energy Import Bill",
        "baseline2025": 4,
        "scenarioOptimistic": 4.8,
        "scenarioProtracted": 6.5,
        "unit": "% of GDP"
      },
      {
        "indicator": "Labour Migration",
        "baseline2025": 1116,
        "scenarioOptimistic": 900,
        "scenarioProtracted": 780,
        "unit": "thousand workers/yr"
      }
    ],
    "highlights": [
      {
        "label": "Suez Traffic Reduction",
        "value": "−73%",
        "delta": "vs. Jan 2023 baseline"
      },
      {
        "label": "Freight Rate Increase",
        "value": "+550%",
        "delta": "peak Jul 2025 vs. Jan 2023"
      },
      {
        "label": "Extra Lead Time",
        "value": "+14–15 days",
        "delta": "Chittagong → Hamburg via Cape"
      }
    ],
    "claims": [],
    "primarySourceUrl": "https://portwatch.imf.org",
    "additionalSources": [
      {
        "name": "Freightos Baltic Index",
        "url": "https://fbx.freightos.com"
      },
      {
        "name": "World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook",
        "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation",
        "url": "https://bpc.gov.bd"
      }
    ],
    "verification": {
      "registryStatus": "Partially Verified",
      "sourceVerified": true,
      "unverifiedFields": [],
      "knownGaps": [
        "This pillar's series ends Feb 2026 and does not reflect two major real-world shocks since: the Israel/US-Iran war beginning 28 Feb 2026 and the resulting Strait of Hormuz closure (WTO-reported ~95% drop in Persian Gulf crude shipping, ~99% drop in LNG shipping; full flows not expected to resume before 2027), and the Houthis' declared 'fourth phase' Red Sea escalation from 27 Jul 2026 (attacks including the MV Eternity C, a stated blockade of Israeli ports). Bangladesh's own energy-import and shipping exposure to these events is not modelled in the data below",
        "Suez transit volumes after Feb 2026 have not been incorporated from IMF PortWatch",
        "FY2025 crude oil import volumes pending BPC Annual Report",
        "Bangladesh Bank remittance corridor data has no public API — updated manually quarterly",
        "IMF Portwatch CORS-blocked from browser — live Suez transit uses static fallback"
      ]
    }
  }
}